The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has adjusted its forecast for global economic growth, projecting a 3.1% increase in 2026, slightly up from the previous 3.0% estimate. Despite this upward revision, the anticipated growth remains lower than the 3.5% expansion recorded in 2025. Looking further ahead, the IMF expects the global economy to grow by 3.4% in 2027.
A significant factor influencing these projections is the investment in artificial intelligence (AI), which is helping to mitigate some of the economic pressures from higher energy costs and geopolitical tensions. However, the benefits of AI are not evenly distributed across the globe. The United States and China are currently leading in demand for imported computer chips and AI-related equipment, accounting for over three-quarters of net demand.
Nevertheless, the IMF has raised concerns about potential risks to global financial stability arising from a correction in AI-related stock markets, rising bond yields, increasing public debt, and cyber threats. The organization has also highlighted the potential impact of AI on the job market, suggesting that around 40% of jobs worldwide could be affected through changes in tasks, job quality, or employment levels.
Inflation is another focal point of the IMF’s forecast, with global inflation projected to reach 4.7% in 2026 before easing to 4.1% by 2027. The forecast presumes that oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz will resume by March and anticipates a moderation in demand for AI-related products.
Among major economies, the United States is forecast to grow by 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027. Meanwhile, China’s economy is expected to expand by 4.5% this year. India, continuing its trajectory as the fastest-growing major economy, is projected to grow by 7% in 2026, following a 7.7% increase in 2025.
Emerging and developing economies are expected to see growth of 3.7% in 2026, with an acceleration to 4.4% in 2027. However, the outlook for the Middle East and Central Asia is less optimistic, with economic contraction expected this year before a recovery in 2027.
In light of these forecasts and potential risks, the IMF has urged governments to focus on strengthening public finances and managing rising levels of debt, as borrowing costs remain high and geopolitical uncertainties continue to impact the global economic outlook.